Rate of economic growth matters? Or, the kind of economic growth really matters? Why our policy makers haven’t promoted all-round growth?

The Prime Minister talks of inclusive growth. Fine. But why the inclusive growth is not happening? Why some segments are outside the growth story? For instance, agriculture? Why even the rate of employment growth. As per the latest data there are signs of   a sort of a definite recession in industrial production. Indian industry has recorded dismal growth for April-September 2007 period with almost 60 per cent of the 91 sectors surveyed recording a low growth rate of below 10 per cent. Basic goods, including cement, fertiliser, and polymer, steel as well as intermediate goods recorded either moderate or even negative growth, according to a recent CII-ASCON survey.

The only exception was consumer durables, with sub-sectors like scooters, electric fans, microwaves and air conditioners recording good growth of 10 per cent and more. Even here the utility vehicles, motor cycles showed negative growth rates. The automobile sectors did a bad job, with Tatas and Ashok Leyland and even TVS reporting moderate and negative sales!

The more important point here that even among the excellent rates for certain sectors, the rate of per cent ages for the good sectors had declined, while the percentages for the moderate and negative sectors had increased. The Central Statistical Organisation index of industrial production has growth only by 9.2 per cent during the first six months. The same period of last year saw a growth rate of 11.1 per cent.

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Mukesh Ambani vs Sunil Bharti Mittal rivalry!

The economic reformers must articulate the benefits of organised retail for farm sector reforms!

The organised retail revolution will come and will succeed. The traditional exploitation of farmers by the age-old money lenders and the traders will end for ever! One has to have the vision to foresee developments in the farm sector. It will help both the producers and the consumers. Better prices for farm produce and low price for consumers. And see the multiple benefits. Air prices, electronic weighing, spot payments and collection at farmers’ gates. May be, the Indian farmers are waiting all these days for this day to come. With no exaggeration we can say this is the real second Green Revolution. This revolution of retail business in agri produce and food products through retail chains.
It is always good news for agriculture that daily news   is about agriculture.
TV news channels these days often play up the protests against some retail chains in UP, Orissa and Maharashtra. The latest seemed to be the one in Mumbai not long ago. Over 20,000 persons gathered  at Azad Maidan to protest against the corporates and foreign chains like Wal-Mart into retail trade in India, more so the agri /food products, groceries etc.
At the centre of this controversy are the Special Economic Zones and also the targeted Reliance subsidiary, Reliance Fresh stores.

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Developed India by 2020?

Kalam Vision is more an inspirational wish, than a reasoned exposition of development in depth, be it economic and social development or human development as such.
APJ Abdul Kalam was such a popular President that it is too early to stand apart and take an objective look at some of his weightly pronouncements. One is his vision for a developed India by 2020.
There is a strong popular view and popular belief that India is progressing on a steady path towards a developed nation by 2020. One of the loud messages towards this goal is set of course by our much admired Abdul Kalam, former President. Along the way we are also believing that economic progress of the country is also proceeding towards such a goal.
In India, the public perception seems to be that India would become a developed nation, if we follow the Kalam path.
The point I want to highlight here is this: is the view of scientists, professional economists and technologists and others who are talking about turning India into a developed country by 2020 is based on any sound thinking?
My view is that it is not!
Why I say so?

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Agriculture is an economic and political power!
There is now a new sense of urgency to do something in the agricultural sector. That is a welcome development. But do the public also know why this sense of urgency?
The most obvious explanation is the current mood of despondency of the ruling UPA, more so the Congress party that the future of its electoral chances in the next general elections due in 2009 are dim!
There is what is now called, to use a current favourite phrase, a disconnect of the ruling party with the rural voters, more so the farmers.
Farmers suicides still continue, more in Vidarbha and now in Karnataka. This must have caused a heartburn at the PMO or at Krishi Bhavan or at least in 10,Janpath.But they all went unreported and unnoticed.
The point is that there is a strong political dimension to the agricultural sector. It was so in all major countries. The USA built its economic power by concentrating on its agricultural sector, it has been much written about, how this was achieved since the Civil War and the land-grant colleges, that later blossomed into Universities of California, Cornell and Minnesota have developed a strong research and extension capability. This capability we can notice even now, where American agriculture always goes aggressively into capacity building.

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IIM students get sky-high salaries!

So, India now a Superpower?

It seems it is time for celebrations for India! This year, the American Forbes magazine that tracks billionaires all over the world revealed for the first time that next to America India has produced so many billionaires! Not even China is near India in this league. They very language of the India’s new generation of entrepreneurs, the Indian IT professionals and the new generation of achievers, in so many fields, be it sports or arts or in every other sphere, from films to media enterprises, it looks India is fast becoming a world centre, if not a world power!

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After Karl Marx Indian intelligentsia didn’t progress much!

So, the current crop of Western intellectuals and theorists, names like Eric Hobsbawm and a host of UK and US academics, the names are many don’t command any attention nor the Indian intelligentsia ,whoever they are, care to mention here and grab attention. For that matter Indian economic growth as it is making news, is making news for the World Forum participants, they make up the India’s new generation entrepreneurs, like Bharati Mittal and the Ambani brothers and others like the IT bigwigs carry the day.

So, there is not much room for any historic narrations or the many isms that preceded the present new economy capitlaism.Of course, the there is a new perception of the knowledge driven economy, the IT industries where the brain power counts much in wealth creation. At the same time, there is also much respect and admiration for the new success stories like the Lakshmi Mittal and the Bhraati Mittal types. Anyway, at the level of the intelligentsia, at the level of the bureaucracy and the government, the politicians there are still an entrenched Leftist leaning.

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The PM stands a bereft orphan!

With major electoral defeats, what clarity little clarity we had is missing! The Congress Party faced two electoral defeats in Punjab and Uttaranchal. The third in UP surely looks like a foregone one. In such a dismal scenario, what articulations the Congress has? What major introspection has taken place?

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Political, historical and technological factors. International scenario. These only help or hinder the economic progress of a nation. We need a more openly-debated economic policy too!

There is a superficial belief that Dr.Manmohan Singh is an economic expert. He is! Also there is this belief that economic experts can promote economic growth. This belief is not proved! More so now, under Manmohan Singh! Economists can explain some economic factors. But to bring about the economic progress we need bold leaders, visionaries, leaders with peoples’ mandate. Even here we can see China is different from Russia. China is fast growing. Russia is struggling. India is progressing, no doubt. But it is not doing things as it should be! In a sense, a light-weight Prime Minister is a handicap. Any leader must believe in some  visionary set of beliefs.

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There will always be globalisers and anti-globalisers as long as there is an unequal world.

Eric Hobsbawm concludes his survey of the end do Communism in these following words: “We do not know where we are going. We only know that history has brought us to this point. However, if humanity is to have a recognisable future, it cannot be by prolonging the past or the present. If we try to build the third millennium, on that basis we shall fail. And the price of failure, that is to say, the alternative to a changed society, is darkness” (The Age of Extremes, page 584).
 
The  Microsoft  Chairman, Bill Gates, was in India for four days, his fourth visit to India  and he spoke glowingly about India looking futuristic with enormous human skills. The last 10 years had been the best so far in Indian history. Microsoft will invest 1.7 billion dollars in the next few years; also the Gates Foundation has committed huge sums for combating India’s health problems.

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Economics is not everything, of course!

New Chief Ministers, new mindsets?  Yes, there is still a long way to go to ensure fast economic growth and reach critical human development indices.  There is still a visible urban bias and a rural neglect.

There now new Chief Ministers, after the new elections and of course are the same old faces as in TN , West Bengal and   Assam, new ones in Kerala and yet there is a  new temper in the air  in the states as well as in New Delhi. Who writes on politics  or who interprets the political scene matters a lot in what new insights we get or not. Professional writers, mostly employees of big media families have their own limits in India. So too the old columnists who many times display independence but in the end they end up as looking for old times, old time perspectives.

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