A distinct possibility is the very same distinct character of the Bengali renaissance political and cultural history.
West Bengal is no more the strong hold of any party other than Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress. And Mamata, remember, is a stormy petral of the Indian National Congress itself.
The 35 year old dogmatic ideology of the Marxist Party is now gone. Not many can recollect the leaders of the old CPI(M),leader like Jyoti Basu and many other veterans who were both formidable theoreticians as well practical achievers. Nor the current crop of Trinamool grass root workers any way lacking in the muscle and other grassroots skills including indulging in violence.
The RSS is strong but not at the very heart of Bengali politics. They are somewhere near the borders of Bangladesh and where Muslim vote is concerned it is very strongly in favour of the Trinamool only.
The BJP hasn’t been able to build its base for ,as observed by many observers, Mamata herself is a devotee of the Hindu gods and the Hindu icon like Bankim, Tagore, Vivekananda, Ramakrishna Paramahamsa and Bose! So, however hard the BJP may try to appropriate these Bengal icons they are already appropriated by a wider section of the Hindu society not just inside Bengal but also outside.
And it may not be irrelevant to point out that again however hard you try to appropriate the icon of Swami Vivekananda he Swamiji is already a secular Hindu icon as well. To put the Swamiji’s robust secularism into the rather un and even anti-intellectualism and such serious rationalism of the Swamiji’s exposition of Hinduism itself doesn’t make sense and that is the only genuine explanation, in our view why the RSS or the BJP leaders like Amith Shah and Narendra Modi doesn’t cut ice with the well-evolved Bengal middle class elite as well as the mass of the Bengalis society and polity.
That was one significant reason why Amit Shah couldn’t muster enough credibility when he called to see the intelligentsia and that section roundly refused to take the bite!
So, it is very likely that after the much debated and much controversial panchayat elections in which 34 per cent of the seats went uncontested and that explains the hold the Trinamool has over the imagination of the Bengali mass.
Yes, Bengali mass is still in a sort of Dark Age ,when seen from the other extreme of a similar state like Tamil Nadu where too the hold of the Dravidians eths of similar ethnic identity holds the BJP at bay.
In neither of these states the BJP can hope to make any advance for the people in these states have gone further and further away from the so-called mainstream like advance the BJP made in one swoop in the year 2014.
Bengal had adopted an eclectic sort of Hinduism in the likes of lives and service of the saints like Chaitanya Mahaprabhu and Ramakrishna Paramahamsa. So, any number of slogans like Jai Ram and the processions of Ramanavami and Hanuman Jayanti won’t cut ice with the voters.
So, what chance for the BJP in Bengal?
May be one or two marginal rise in vote share or seat share. Given Mamata’s penchant for energy and a daring thrust at the enemy camp, be it the CPI(M) or the Congress where the leaders are very weak and also from the BJP ranks where too leaders like Mukul Roy and Ritabrta Benerjee are no match to Mamata’s current crop of energised new leaders, there are too many to narrate here their individual contributions to the collective strength.
What is the chances for Mamata’s claim for New Delhi crown?
Her sheer numbers. She could hopefully bring to the table the entire 42 MP seats.
Once she demonstrates her pull, may be the other alliance partners who are also otherwise allergic to the dynastic claims of the Congress, the party might have no other choice but to fall in line.
The Eastern Indian segment might also opt for Mamata.
Why, even other states might coalesce with the others in the very jockeying for a share in power.